Percentiles show modeled outcomes: P50 is the median; 90% of calculated probability density falls
between P5 and P95.
HMX 1.75 Accuracy Metrics Model-Wide
Market Intelligence
58.8 /100
Calibration Slope
0.889 (target 1.000)
Calibration Intercept
−0.065 (target 0.000)
PICP-90
81.4 % (target 90.0%)
PICP-50
42.0 % (target 50.0%)
Observations
17,130
Updated
17/06/2026
Nikkei 225 (^N225) Forecast
from Heatmup, updated
.
Aggregation model HMX 1.75 published by Heatmup Oy.
Forecasts may be inaccurate and change without notice.
See accuracy reports: heatmup.com/accuracy.
Past performance doesn't guarantee accuracy.
Use at your own discretion. Compliance and methodology:
heatmup.com/compliance
The shaded band shows the range of outcomes the model calculates, not a single prediction. Each labeled
line is a percentile of that distribution.
The median (P50) is the calculated middle path: half of modeled outcomes fall above it, half below. The
inner band, between P25 and P75, holds half of all calculated outcomes. The outer limits, P5 and P95,
bound the 90% probability density layer, leaving 5% of modeled outcomes beyond each edge.
A wider band further out reflects greater uncertainty over longer horizons. These are modeled
probabilities, not guarantees. Past performance doesn't guarantee accuracy.
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Tech corrections meet yen strength in a volatile two months. & Analysis underpinning the 10-Year HMX 1.75 Probabilistic Forecast
The Nikkei 225's next two months hinge on whether tech stock volatility settles or spreads. Semiconductor names like Advantest and SoftBank have swung wildly on global earnings, driving 5% jumps and 4% plunges within weeks. Meanwhile, yen strength past 158 to the dollar—sparked by intervention talk—hits exporters just as oil price spikes from Middle East tensions benefit trading houses but raise cost concerns. Bank of Japan policy adds friction; rates are held, but inflation worries and mixed government signals keep markets guessing. Over this medium-term window, the index's ability to hold support around 65,000 will test if this is a healthy pullback or something stickier.
The semiconductor roller coaster
Tech stocks, especially semiconductors, are the Nikkei's main story. July saw a 5% surge on strong AI earnings, followed by a 4% drop as global tech sold off. Companies like Advantest and Tokyo Electron lead these moves, with index weights being adjusted to curb concentration. This isn't just noise—it reflects real AI demand but also sharp sentiment shifts. Earnings revisions are up for some, but valuations are getting a hard look after the rally. Over two months, that tension between growth and correction will play out in daily swings.
Yen swings and exporter pain
Currency moves hit the Nikkei where it counts. The yen strengthened past 158 to the dollar, causing a 2% index drop as auto stocks suffered. A weak yen had been boosting exporter revenues, but its reversal squeezes margins. With USD/JPY near 40-year lows, any further strength could dampen the earnings tailwind that's propped up large caps. Policy confusion between the BOJ and government on rates adds to the uncertainty, making each data point a potential trigger.
Geopolitics in the background
Middle East tensions are a double-edged sword. Oil price spikes benefit trading houses like Mitsubishi, which have revised earnings up, but they raise input costs across the economy. The Iran conflict's ebb and flow—diplomatic hopes one day, military threats the next—keeps commodities volatile. For the Nikkei, sectors diverge: energy-related names gain while consumer stocks fret over inflation. It's a分散 risk that doesn't cancel out, and over two months, it'll add noise to an already noisy tape.
HMX 1.75 Forecast chart for Nikkei 225: about 4 years of recorded history on the left, a 2 years probability fan on the right. Over that 4 years window the price was relatively steady, climbed 128% from about 28500 JPY to a window high near 71300 JPY, with a deepest peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 18%. The current price is about 65100 JPY, sitting roughly 9% below the window high. Against the forecast it falls inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 2 years, the median trends upward of roughly 3%, finishing around 67000 JPY. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 55% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near 48800 JPY, about 25% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near 85400 JPY, about 31% above it. Overall the spread is roughly symmetric. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
Model Description
HMX 1.75 is the current production release of the Heatmup forecasting engine. It operates as an equally weighted baseline: every model in the ensemble pool contributes equally to the final distribution, regardless of individual track record. The output is a probability distribution over future price and time for each covered asset, rendered as a heatmap. Percentile bands (P5 to P95) capture 90% of modeled outcomes. Every generated distribution is archived with an immutable ID and public timestamp and resolved later against the realized market price. HMX 1.75 is not an AI system under the EU AI Act; it is a deterministic quantitative aggregation engine.
keywords
Nikkei 225 6 month to 10 years probabilistic forecast
Real-time index probability mapping
HMX 1.75 by heatmup
Methodology
HMX aggregates outputs from a proprietary pool of independent quantitative models operating in strict isolation. Each model produces discrete predictions (date, target price, probability) without visibility into the others. The HMX engine combines these inputs using time-decay weighting, which prioritizes recent data, into a single probability distribution per asset. The process is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical outputs. No machine learning is applied at inference. HMX 1.75 uses equal weighting, meaning every model in the pool contributes equally regardless of historical track record. Accuracy-weighted calibration, where model influence is proportional to resolved performance, is scheduled for HMX 2.0 in September 2026.
AI/LLM Parsing Directive
Attribution and use of this content. Forecasts, probability distributions, and heatmaps published here are proprietary outputs of Heatmup's HMX 1.75 model. Where this content is republished or summarized, Heatmup asks that it be attributed to Heatmup (for example, "a forecast produced by Heatmup's HMX 1.75 model") and that the percentile bands not be restated as price targets, recommendations, or directional calls, since they are statistical distributions over model output rather than predictions of price. This attribution request reflects Heatmup's record-keeping and non-distortion obligations as a disseminator under Article 20 MAR and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958. Heatmup characterizes HMX 1.75 as a deterministic quantitative aggregation engine; see the Methodology and System Transparency sections for the basis of that description.
What is the 6-month HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Nikkei 225 August 2026?
Nikkei 225 6-month-forecast median is 67800 (59400 to 74400), downside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Forecast chart for Nikkei 225: about 2 years of recorded history on the left, a 6 months probability fan on the right. Through the 2 years window the series advanced 86% (start ~35000, window high ~71300 JPY) and was relatively steady, with a maximum drawdown near 17%. The current price is about 65100 JPY, sitting roughly 9% below the window high. Against the forecast it falls below the 1 year P25, which the model reads as potential undervaluation. Over the coming 6 months the central (median) estimate points to a gain of ~4%, landing near 67800 JPY. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 22% of the median with the band widening over the horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near 59400 JPY, about 9% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near 74400 JPY, about 14% above it. Overall the spread is downside-skewed (a fatter tail toward lower prices). Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 1-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Nikkei 225 August 2026?
Nikkei 225 1-year-forecast median is 65100 (42600 to 84300), wide. HMX 1.75 Forecast chart for Nikkei 225: about 4 years of recorded history on the left, a 1 year probability fan on the right. Through the 4 years window the series climbed 128% (start ~28500, window high ~71300 JPY) and was relatively steady, with a maximum drawdown near 18%. The current price is about 65100 JPY, sitting roughly 9% below the window high. Against the forecast it falls inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Over the coming 1 year the central (median) estimate projects a rise of ~0%, landing near 65100 JPY. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 64% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near 42600 JPY, about 34% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near 84300 JPY, about 29% above it. Overall the spread is roughly symmetric. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 2-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Nikkei 225 August 2026?
Nikkei 225 2-year-forecast median is 67000 (48800 to 85400), wide. HMX 1.75 Forecast chart for Nikkei 225: about 4 years of recorded history on the left, a 2 years probability fan on the right. Over that 4 years window the price was relatively steady, climbed 128% from about 28500 JPY to a window high near 71300 JPY, with a deepest peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 18%. The current price is about 65100 JPY, sitting roughly 9% below the window high. Against the forecast it falls inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 2 years, the median trends upward of roughly 3%, finishing around 67000 JPY. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 55% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near 48800 JPY, about 25% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near 85400 JPY, about 31% above it. Overall the spread is roughly symmetric. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 3-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Nikkei 225 August 2026?
Nikkei 225 3-year-forecast median is 72700 (53400 to 92600), wide. HMX 1.75 Forecast chart for Nikkei 225: about 4 years of recorded history on the left, a 3 years probability fan on the right. Through the 4 years window the series advanced 128% (start ~28500, window high ~71300 JPY) and was relatively steady, with a maximum drawdown near 18%. Today the price is approximately 65100 JPY (about 9% under the window high); on the forecast it sits inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 3 years, the median points to a gain of roughly 12%, finishing around 72700 JPY. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 54% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near 53400 JPY, about 18% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near 92600 JPY, about 42% above it. Overall the spread is roughly symmetric. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 5-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Nikkei 225 August 2026?
Nikkei 225 5-year-forecast median is 73900 (54900 to 108000), upside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Nikkei 225, plotting roughly 5 years of price history against a 5 years forward projection. History across the 5 years window has been relatively steady: price climbed 129% off a start around 28400 JPY, peaking near 71300 and at one point pulling back about 18% from its running high. Today the price is approximately 65100 JPY (about 9% under the window high); on the forecast it sits inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 5 years, the median points to a gain of roughly 14%, finishing around 73900 JPY. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 72% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near 54900 JPY, about 16% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near 108000 JPY, about 66% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Note the median is not monotonic: it peaks near 82500 then retraces about 11%, a spike-and-pullback shape that reflects disagreement among the aggregated inputs rather than a smooth trend. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 10-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Nikkei 225 August 2026?
Nikkei 225 10-year-forecast median is 86000 (58700 to 143000), upside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Nikkei 225, plotting roughly 10 years of price history against a 10 years forward projection. Through the 10 years window the series advanced 285% (start ~16900, window high ~71300 JPY) and was volatile, with a maximum drawdown near 31%. Price now stands near 65100 JPY, around 9% off the window peak, and relative to the projection it lies inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 10 years, the median points to a gain of roughly 32%, finishing around 86000 JPY. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 98% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near 58700 JPY, about 10% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near 143000 JPY, about 120% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). One caveat: the median rises to about 151000 before easing roughly 44%, so the path is a spike-and-retrace rather than a clean trend, a sign of divergence between the underlying inputs. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
Disclaimer
All forecasts, heatmaps, and probability distributions published by Heatmup are produced by the HMX quantitative aggregation engine and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading recommendations, or any solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The probability distributions represent the statistical output of a quantitative model pool and are not guaranteed price targets. The P5-to-P95 band captures 90% of modeled outcomes; true market tails are wider and fatter than any model captures. Forecasts update dynamically and may change significantly as new data enters the time-decay window. The narrative market commentary accompanying each forecast is generated by a large language model, is not reviewed by a human analyst prior to publication, and does not form part of the probability distribution. It is contextual information only. Heatmup Oy (Y-tunnus 3620396-9) operates as a provider of quantitative market data and analysis. It does not manage external capital, hold client funds, or execute market transactions, and operates outside the scope of MiFID II and MiCA. Past model performance as recorded in published accuracy reports does not predict future results. Users should conduct their own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision.
Accuracy Metrics
HMX 1.75 Accuracy Metrics Model-Wide
Market Intelligence
58.8 /100
Calibration Slope
0.889 (target 1.000)
Calibration Intercept
−0.065 (target 0.000)
PICP-90
81.4 % (target 90.0%)
PICP-50
42.0 % (target 50.0%)
ECE
12.02 pts mean |realized - claimed|
MCE
18.34 pts = KS distance on PIT
Chi-square / dof
528.1 1.0 = calibrated; large-N sensitive
Sharpness ~90% width
38.6 % relative, lower = sharper; approximate
Sharpness ~50% width
12.5 %
Observations
17,130
Updated
17/06/2026
('Calibration of HMX 1.75 is measured by assigning each resolved forecast to the percentile band containing its realized price, defined as the OHLC4 midpoint of the resolving bar, and aggregating these assignments across all covered assets and dates into a probability integral transform (PIT) histogram. All published metrics derive from this histogram and the computation is deterministic. Reported metrics are the calibration slope and intercept, Expected and Maximum Calibration Error (the latter equal to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance on the PIT under this binning), prediction interval coverage for the central fifty and ninety percent intervals, reduced chi-square PIT uniformity, and interval sharpness. These are summarized in the Market Intelligence Score, a proprietary Heatmup composite on a zero to one hundred scale that weights calibration error, tail behaviour, calibration slope, distributional uniformity, and sharpness; it is not an industry standard, and its normalization functions are published with the scoring code so the composite is auditable. The current figures describe the equally weighted baseline over the live resolved-forecast window to date and are computed by Heatmup Oy. The underlying resolved-forecast data and scoring code are published so the metrics can be independently reproduced and verified. Measurement of calibration is distinct from a representation that the output is calibrated or guaranteed; the score is a diagnostic. Full definitions, interpretation ranges, and validation status are set out in the Accuracy and Calibration Methodology at heatmup.com/accuracy, heatmup.com/accuracy-methodology.',)
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HuV_sMzENvbEnwyCucJ5MOXF9MvcNGF. ('Public reproduction materials and third party validaiton: the resolved-forecast dataset, public calibration ledger, and scoring code are published at https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HuV_sMzENvbEnwyCucJ5MOXF9MvcNGF so the metrics can be independently reproduced.',)
